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DJW Quick Take: A Brief Look at The Economy: Is the PIA’s Outlook Too Rosy? January 28, 2003 -- On January 24th, the PIA released its assessment of the effect of the President’s proposed tax plan on the printing business, indicating 2004 would be the best of the next three years, with sales growth for 2004 of 3.8%, up 0.6% from previous estimates. I believe this assessment is far too rosy. While general economic growth will be stimulated by the plan, the assumption in this assessment is that GDP and the print business move in lockstep. That relationship ended around 1997, and there is no reason a synchronous march of business activity will resume. For one thing, the value of traditional print advertising has come into some question over the past few years -- as has the use of all kinds of printed documents with electronic replacements and the convenience of desktop printing creating a sea change in the marketplace. While the tax plan is necessary for a growing economy (though in my mind it is not aggressive enough), it cannot effect significant change on the print business because the need and the demand for print has organically changed. Editor’s Note: Click here to see the original news item. Tune in Friday for a more in-depth analysis. Please send feedback to Dr. Joe by emailing him at drjoe@whattheythink.com. To have your question answered in the next column, click here - Back to Dr. Joe Webb's Main Page

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