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Dr. Joe Webb's 4th Quarter and 2007 Printing Industry Economic Outlook

- Sponsored by Kodak
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If you have questions about this webinar, please contact Eric: eric@whattheythink.com
Questions and Answers - Following are questions that were not answered during the live event:
Q: Do you expect the lower gas prices will have a positive impact on the economy thus creating inflationary pressures in prices and wages causing the Fed to raise rates again?
A: The more important aspect is housing. Lower gas prices may help the auto industry sell more profitable larger vehicles again. Inflation is the result of more money than goods, and economies grow without inflation because of the incentives to produce goods, and then those growing goods absorb any excess money creation. Housing ripples through the economy like nothing else it seems; it creates demand for materials and services, which in turn creates markets for other services that don't seem related. So when that starts falling back, the others will too. The inflation question is not the rise in price of an individual good or service, but a general unwarranted rise. Commodities rising is usually a sign of stronger economic activity, not inflation. Lately, the gas price declines are due to the fact that they produced so much, the distribution is really backed up and they have to get rid of it. This is why short-term changes are often more supply-related than they are demand related, so you really have to look at things carefully and in enough context. The Fed was so aggressive for so long after 9/11, that they overshot on the low side, and now they've overshot on the high side. They will lower rates again soon. The inverted yield curve will eventually scare them into doing it.
Q: China as competition short term and long term
A: The bigger competitor to the printing industry is electronic media, not China, and especially in the long term. We should be looking at China as a real opportunity because the market will be growing so rapidly for a long time, and in 15-20 years will have a larger economy than the U.S.
Q: Color variable digital print is growing dramatically, but we keep hearing about companies that have invested in expensive, high-end equipment that is sitting idle. Could you comment?
A: I'm not surprised. Selling this kind of printing consistently requires that you really reach back into the market to the creatives and planners, and our industry is rarely good at that. It is on the mass publishing side, where big publishers have long-term contracts and murderous deadlines, but elsewhere we are not. I've warned about this for more than 10 years. Growth rates are high because it is a low base. It's a better business outside of the commercial market, especially among computer service bureaus that work with financial institutions and the like, growing out of their statement printing and mailing businesses.
Q: What will you cover at the conference next month beyond what was presented here?
A: It will be a lot different. We won't do much of the economic stuff, but for quite a while I've wanted to update my work “Renewing the Print Industry” where I explained the strategic options that printing companies have to make to position themselves for the future. I'll review those strategies (Sender, Receiver, Conduit, Feedback, Communications Logistics, and Commodity strategies), and then review the additional strategy of becoming “offline media” businesses. This phrase did not even exist until recently, and it's well worth exploring. The best part of the presentation is always the Q&A that follows, and sometimes that's even better than the presentation!
About Eastman Kodak Company
Kodak is the world’s foremost imaging innovator, providing leading products and services to the photographic, graphic communications, and healthcare markets. With sales of $14.3 billion in 2005, the company is committed to a digitally oriented growth strategy focused on helping people better use meaningful images and information in their life and work. Consumers use Kodak’s system of digital and traditional image capture products and services to take, print, and share their pictures anytime, anywhere; Businesses effectively communicate with customers worldwide using Kodak’s solutions for prepress, conventional, and digital printing and document imaging; Creative professionals rely on Kodak’s technology to uniquely tell their story through moving or still images; and leading healthcare organizations rely on Kodak’s innovative products, services, and customized workflow solutions to help improve patient care and maximize efficiency and information sharing within and across their enterprises.
More information about Kodak (NYSE: EK) is available at www.kodak.com.
About Dr. Joe Webb
Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the founding partner of the new business www.PrintForecast.com, which publishes the free newsletter PrintForecast Perspective, the paid newsletter/podcast PrintForecast Contrarian view, and other global print business planning and forecasting resources.
A 28-year veteran of the graphic arts industries, he was the developer of the influential TrendWatch information service, which was sold to Reed Elsevier in 2000. Since January 2003, his "Fridays with Dr. Joe" column has become a popular feature on www.WhatTheyThink.com. His running commentary on the printing industry, new media, and the economy, can also be found at www.drjoesblog.com.
He is a Ph.D. graduate of the NYU Center for Graphic Communications Management and Technology (1987) and serves on the Center's Board of Advisors. He holds an MBA in Management Information Systems from Iona College (1981), was a magna cum laude graduate in Managerial Sciences and Marketing from Manhattan College (1978), and was a member of the economics honor society.
"Dr. Joe" can be reached by e-mail through the PrintForecast.com website, where executives can also sign up for the free PrintForecast Perspective newsletter. His phone number is 1-401-709-4423.
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