Welcome to this webinar archive. The live event was held on September 26, 2007, but you may still access the content with the resources below.

The easiest way to view the archive is to have it stream just as it did the day of the live event. Please try this option first (available for one year)

Streaming Archive

At any time and after the one year streaming archive is inactive, you can still get the following downloadables:

Adobe Acrobat version of the slides (1.42 MB pdf)

Downloadable audio archive (6.43 MB MP3)

Questions and Answers - Below are questions by attendees that we were unable to include in the live webinar:

Q. What effect will the current mortgage fiasco have on how banks loan money to businesses? Will the Banks tighten the guidelines and only want to loan money to businesses with perfect credit?

A. This was quite a surprise to me. I checked around before and during the show, expecting that there would be significant downside effect, and there was not. Some even commented that compared to other industries lately, the printing business actually looked better. What I suspect happened is that our industry's credit problems came into play between 2002 and 2004, and that cleaned out a lot of printers and a lot of bad credit policy issues. Because print has been on a “watch list” of industries for these recent years, and weaker printing companies have closed, merged, or retrenched, credit has actually been better managed. Do printing companies have to pass a higher level of muster to get credit today than they did seven years ago? Are manufacturers less willing to guarantee leases than they were seven years ago? Yes, to both. I suspect, however, that marginal businesses also know not to ask. We probably have a better credit situation now than most suspect. These low interest rates mean that big investors are looking for better yields, and financing capital investment is one of those areas they may seek.

All that said, Adam DeWitz, editor of PrintCEOBlog, sent me this link to a brief story in the New York Times of January 20, 1920, where the head of a typographic union said, “73% of the printers in the United States were utterly irresponsible and did not have credit.” So here we are 87 years later... and those 73% would have credit cards and home equity loans, ideas which would have been considered very strange then, I'm sure.

Q. What is the effect of printing standardization on prices and print volumes? In particular, I am thinking of GRACoL (vs. SWOP).

A. Standardization effects require context from an economic basis. If the standards are used to prevent others from competing, they increase costs and increase prices, much like regulations often do, and send potential users to lower cost alternatives. They limit the market size, but protect those firms from competitors.

Promulgated standards that are internalized in an industry tend to lower costs and increase competition. Even in that case, they can serve as barriers to new technologies being adopted because new technologies may not meet those particular standards.

In the end, the standards you mention have been better for clients in terms of lower prices. For the printers, running a highly variable print process like offset, and the sometimes fickle quality judgments that are part of reproducing color to meet someone's judgment, the standards greatly increase the probability of getting paid. If they can prove they meet those standards, then that eliminates much of the dickering that occurs around whether or not re-runs of jobs are needed. These standards, then, substantially reduce the risk of being in business for the printer, assuming the printer is leveraging them appropriately in his quotes, contracts and other client communications.

Q. What do you believe is the single most important business driver for the future growth of digital production color printing? Short run, JIT, ultra fast turnaround, VDP?

A. None of them. They are great benefits, of course, but they can be overcome by not printing at all with the right audience.

As for the digital printing process, there are many important business drivers, including constantly declining unit production costs, increased predictability of printing directly from files without tweaking, and dependable post-print automation. Increasing the flexibility of digital print and reducing labor and management involvement are far more important in the long run.

It is easy to assume that there will be no competition against the benefits of digital printing. Offset is not sitting there in paralyzed awe of what digital printing does. Offset costs and “rules of thumb” for selecting processes are changing, too.

And of course, technologies that avoid print but effectively transmit the desired information are ruthless competitors against which the total cost of using print is judged, even today. Always comparing offset and digital is a myopic view when content deployers are looking at things more broadly.

And just when you got a handle on Wi-Fi, WiMax is on its way as explained in this recent PC World article. This is likely to provide even more non-print options for communicators.

Q. Do you believe mass marketing is dead?

A. Absolutely not. It's alive and well. Branding is the most important part of marketing, and though brands may be in certain segments and not others, the rise of global marketplaces means that mass marketing that was once defined by borders will become worldwide.

Mass marketing, however, will place that brand in more media than ever. I guess the difference is that mass marketing was essentially broadcast only in the past. Over the decades, it began to include more media. Today, the combination of events, sponsorships, promotions, and digital media make mass marketing all the more complex, but still very essential.

Q. For the print market estimates, do you have any data about the channel breakdown for these estimates? By channel, I mean online, distributor, direct sales, office superstores, copy centers, etc. If there are any breakdowns for the size of the market but defined differently, how are they defined?

A. My print market estimates in the webinar are commercial printing only, which is NAICS 323. Online would be in there if it was produced by a commercial printer, without regard to channel, though it would be a small number. Office superstores, copy centers—inside companies or as part of UPS Stores, drug stores, or whatever—are not included. Those are retailers. Quick printers are included in commercial printing. It is virtually impossible to break out printing revenues for, for example, the Office Superstores, from government data.  Businesses are categorized based on the primary business they are conducting—office products retail, in this case.  Printing constitutes approximately 10% of their revenues according to interviews WhatTheyThink did with these businesses a couple years ago.

Q. What are your thoughts on digital printing shipments in 2008 for books, business forms, catalogs, direct mail (minus trans-promo), financial printing (excluding annual reports), all other commercial printing (including trans-promo).

A. Other than that they are all growing, I have not seen any market size data by those categories, other than those one sees in consulting organization press releases. By the way, the bulk of trans-promo is done outside of the commercial printing business. That will slowly change, most likely.

Q. What do you see for annual growth rates for digital printing in the 2008-2012 period?

A. I would expect digital printing to have rather robust growth compared to the rest of the industry, in the 10%-15% annual growth range, in real terms.

Q. I was actually really happy with the information talked about throughout the broadcast. It basically reinforces that the press class I am running is beneficial.   One question I would have is, if I were to focus my class on one of two specific forms of printing or printing techniques what would they be? 

A. Digital and offset, in broad terms, but I would be getting them to focus on the idea that whomever is getting something printed is probably also using that same content in another form. Therefore, working with digital files and formats, and manipulating them to be optimized for a particular medium, are very important. A sense of workflow, from the idea to its distribution, might seem out of sorts for a press class, but it would be a worthwhile concept to instill in any graphic arts student.

Q. I was wondering if you had any insight to paper price increase projections.

A. Other than saying that they will, I can't add much to the discussion. Watch for more mill closures, more consolidation, and more griping about imports, all in an effort to get market prices up by getting supply, as they will call it, to be “more aligned” with demand. Increasing energy prices will continue to be an important issue for the industry. Be prepared for price increases that are twice the rate of inflation, and if they don't materialize, consider it a blessing. If they're higher, you've been warned.

Q. Were the hourly rates on slide #32 inclusive of benefits or simply raw hourly rates. Secondly, if these are raw hourly rates, based on industry averages, what would the true hourly rates be inclusive of benefits, PTO, & SS contributions?

A. The hourly rates are the wages without benefits or employer-paid taxes.  For small companies without health plans, to get the fully-burdened hourly cost of employees with the taxes paid by the employer, add 15%. If there is health care in the picture, on top of that add $4 to $7 per hour. If that math is too involved, usually adding 35% on top of raw wages is a good rule of thumb that would include those taxes and health costs.

Q. Do you see the pulp strike in Canada affecting the production of paper and ultimately press time at the printers in late 2007 or early 2008?

A. Any long-term strike can cause problems, especially if an industry is growing. That’s not the case here, so any effects will depend on how full supply chains are, since print volumes will be flat or declining for the most part for the next few years. If it’s newsprint, the volume declines may be –3% to –5% for quite a while. Interestingly, the GM-UAW strike was settled very quickly, and that might be a sign that labor (or labour, depending on which side of the border you are on), and pressured companies might be more cooperative. In the paper and forestry industries, competition from imports weighs on the discussions. The creation of an orderly and better process for the closing of obsolete mills with job security and severance packages probably has greater importance than wage negotiations. I think the climate for any union action in most industries is that cooler heads prevail and most strikes will be rather short by historical standards.

If you have questions about this webinar, please contact Eric: eric@whattheythink.com

About Presstek

Presstek, Inc. is the leading manufacturer and marketer of high tech digital imaging solutions to the graphic arts and laser imaging markets. Presstek's patented DI(R), CTP and plate products provide a streamlined workflow in a chemistry-free environment, thereby reducing printing cycle time and lowering production costs. Presstek solutions are designed to make it easier for printers to cost effectively meet increasing customer demand for high-quality, shorter print runs and faster turnaround while providing improved profit margins. Presstek subsidiary, Lasertel, Inc., manufactures semiconductor laser diodes for Presstek's and external customers' applications. For more information visit www.presstek.com, or call 603-595-7000 or email: info@presstek.com.

About WhatTheyThink.com

WhatTheyThink.com is the printing and publishing industry's leading online media organization; offering a wide range of publications delivering unbiased, real-time market intelligence, industry news, economic and trend analysis, peer-to-peer communication, and special reports on emerging technology and critical events. Serving a membership base of more than 50,000, WhatTheyThink.com also hosts webinars and live events as well as providing content through a syndication program, which delivers content directly to related websites and through RSS.

About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink.com's Economics and Research Center.

A 30-year veteran of the graphic arts industries, he was the founder of the influential TrendWatch information service, which was sold to Reed Elsevier in 2000. Since January 2003, his "Mondays with Dr. Joe" column has become a must-read feature on WhatTheyThink.com, as have his quarterly economic forecast webinars, where he analyzes trends in the economy, technology, and the industry, interpreting what they mean for executives and their strategic decisions.

He is a Ph.D. graduate of the NYU Center for Graphic Communications Management and Technology (1987) and serves on the Center's Board of Advisors. He holds an MBA in Management Information Systems from Iona College (1981) and was a magna cum laude graduate in Managerial Sciences and Marketing from Manhattan College (1978), and was a member of the economics honor society. He has taught graduate and undergraduate courses in marketing, market research, quantitative analysis, business policy, and organizational behavior. He started in the industry with Agfa's Graphic Systems Division and was later a marketing executive with Chemco Photoproducts, entering consulting full time in 1987. Among his publications is the controversial "Renewing the Print Industry: A Contrarian's Constructive Perspective."