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2008 and 2009 Printing Industry Economic Outlook Webinar with Dr. Joe Webb
December 12, 2007
Join Dr. Joe for an update on his 2008 and 2009 printing industry economic outlook as well as other insights and opinions he will be offering during this popular quarterly economic outlook webinar.
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If you have questions about this webinar, please contact Eric: eric@whattheythink.com
Additional Questions from the Economic Webinar of December 12, 2007
Q. Can you provide your estimate of shops per segment (small, medium & large). How does this compare to two years ago & 2010?
A. To get an overview of how the printing industry's demographics, and those of related industries, such as publishing, are changing, I recommend downloading and reviewing my presentation from GraphExpo. There I discuss what the industry might look like as far out as 2017.
The general trend for more than ten years has been for the number of industry establishments to shrink by about 1,000 per year. There is tremendous change that nets out to that figure: about 3,000 printing businesses cease operations in any year and about 2,000 begin operations. What's really happening is that many of those that are ceasing are changing their corporate form (such as from corporation to partnership or other changes), owners are shutting one business and opening another, or general consolidation where one business closes and is absorbed by another business. This sometimes necessitates the forming of a new corporation or other entity. Many of the same people are involved, but the legal business entities are what is really changing for any variety of reasons.
Regarding your question about how many establishments there were in 2005, are in 2007, and will be in 2010, these are the figures. Please note that the 2007 figures are our best estimate at this time as we do not have official data from the Commerce Department; obviously, 2007 is not over yet. The most recent data published by the Commerce Department is for 2005.
| 1-9 | 10-49 | 50+ | TOTAL | |
| 2005 | 23166 | 8392 | 2827 | 34385 |
| 2007 | 22164 | 7728 | 2703 | 32595 |
| 2010 | 20661 | 6730 | 2525 | 29915 |
Q. In one of your data charts, in Q2 of 2000 you have printing profits higher than printing shipments. What caused this?
A. It's just the position of the lines in relation to its axis. This is a two-axis chart: the left axis is sales, and the right axis is profits, both in billions of dollars.
By changing the beginning and ending points of the scales of each axis, the position of the lines will change. If we used the same axis for both sales and profits, perhaps a range of $0 to $140 billion, the sales line would be in the top third of the chart, and the profits line would be down at the bottom of the chart and visually have little variation. Take a look at what happens to the chart when we do exactly that:
If the data were presented in the manner above, the chart wouldn't yield much value. Because the axis data range is so wide, variations in the two data series are hidden and visually minimized. It's a tradeoff one makes when presenting data. So don't read anything into the positions of the lines. Pay more attention to how each line relates to its own specific axis.
Q. There are a lot of factions in the printing industries. Do you have a feeling for what parts of the business will be the winners and losers?
A. I hate picking winners and losers because it's really up to the individual entrepreneurs, owners and top executives what happens to their own companies. The biggest pressure in the industry is on small shops, though they represent only a very small percentage industry shipments. Many new technologies have high price tags that are beyond their reach. Office superstores are strong competitors because of their superior retail locations and brand recognition, even though service is less personal and interactive than dealing with small commercial printers. Digital printing companies will do well if they fully exploit the new way of doing business that sector requires. There are benefits to large, multiplant printing businesses, especially in terms of capitalization. Debt-laden companies will find this environment significantly difficult as it limits their range of actions to adapt to the marketplace.
Q. Regarding the Winter Reading List, I notice there are LINKS on the screen, yet when I downloaded the PDF, there are no links to the articles. Will this be corrected?
A. The links in the PDF are live. Just click on the article names and your browser will open and go to the site or document mentioned. Some PDF readers may require holding down the CTRL key while clicking on the link.
About Presstek
Presstek, Inc. is the leading manufacturer and marketer of high tech digital imaging solutions to the graphic arts and laser imaging markets. Presstek's patented DI(R), CTP and plate products provide a streamlined workflow in a chemistry-free environment, thereby reducing printing cycle time and lowering production costs. Presstek solutions are designed to make it easier for printers to cost effectively meet increasing customer demand for high-quality, shorter print runs and faster turnaround while providing improved profit margins. Presstek subsidiary, Lasertel, Inc., manufactures semiconductor laser diodes for Presstek's and external customers' applications. For more information visit www.presstek.com, or call 603-595-7000 or email: info@presstek.com.
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